Model-based discriminant analysis of Iberian potential vegetation and bio-climatic indices

While vegetation is seldom at equilibrium, equilibrium models of the vegetation-climate relationships point towards states that can be considered as asymptotic or potential. Provided that the newer conditions are within the range of those for which the models have been conceived and parameterised, equilibrium models can be used to estimate the impact of different climate scenarios, as they provide the newer trends towards newer equilibrium points. In this contribution, we present our on-going research on a statistical model applied to the Iberian vegetation and present initial results. We use a climatic data-set of monthly fields of precipitation and mean temperature and a vegetation map of Spain. We transform the climatic data into bio-climatic indexes and run a discriminant analysis for a subset of training sites. We discuss the ordination, parameterise as a mixture of multi-variate Gaussian distributions and generate a new bio-climatic map. While still have some more tuning to do, we are close to be ready to apply the same statistical model to newer climate scenarios.