Earth’s thermal evolution with multiple convection modes: A Monte-Carlo approach

We present a thermal evolution model, based on the results of recent numerical simulations, in which we consider that different sized oceanic plates are associated with different modes of surface motion (mobile-lid and sluggish-lid tectonics). These different modes are, in turn, associated with different heat loss scalings. Varying initial conditions and system parameters systematically we run several thousand thermal models that we compare with constraints on present-day mantle temperature, present-day Urey ratio and overall minimum core heat flow. The dual heat loss mode approach readily satisfies the Urey ratio constraint that is unexplained by classic thermal evolution models.