On the warm/cold regime shift in the South China Sea: Observation and modeling study

Remote sensing data sets and a high-resolution three-dimensional regional ocean model were utilized to investigate the shifting of warm/cold regime and the associated sea level variation in the South China Sea (SCS) during 2000–2003. Both the altimetry data and the model results showed an increase in the sea level (warm phase) followed by an abrupt decrease (cold phase) in the SCS during 2000–2003. Heat budget calculations performed with the model revealed excess heat advection from the western Pacific warm pool into the SCS during the warm phase than the cold phase. The warm phase, which occurred during La Niña episodes, resulted from the intrusion of abnormally warmer western Pacific water that increased the heat content and thus sea level in the SCS. The cold phase, which occurred during El Niño episodes, was triggered by a reduction in the net atmospheric heat flux followed by cold water advection into the SCS. Decrease in the rate of precipitation minus evaporation (P−E) also accounted for the falling of sea level during cold phase. The present study integrated the available remote sensing data and advanced numerical model to identify the time-dependent three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic forcing that are important in governing the warm/cold regime shift in the SCS.