Slip rates of the Altyn Tagh, Kunlun and Karakorum faults (Tibet) from 3D mechanical modeling

We use 3-D mechanical modeling representing faults as planar surfaces with frictional properties that obey Coulomb-failure process to explore the long-term slip rates of the Altyn Tagh fault and Kunlun faults in the north Tibetan plateau. Crustal rheology is simplified as an elastoplastic upper crust and a viscoelastic lower crust. Far-field GPS velocities and late Quaternary fault slip rates are used to constrain the model results. Rheological tests show that effective fault friction lower than 0.1–0.08 leads to high slip rates that fit with geologically and geodetically determined slip rates of the Kunlun fault (10–11.7 ± 1.5 mm/yr). Meanwhile, the modeled Altyn Tagh fault reaches slip rates ~ 13.7 mm/yr to ~ 17.8 mm/yr in its central portion, between ranges of the geological slip rates. Associated with high slip rates, our model predicts that central Tibet (~ 84°E–95°E) from the Altyn Tagh fault to the north of the Himalayan arc accommodates north–south shortening and east–west extension rates of ~ 10–12 mm/yr and ~ 8–10 mm/yr, respectively. We also question the widely accepted idea that interseismic strain is driven at the base of the seismogenic zone by a screw dislocation. If this assumption fails, the presented model implies that interseismic strain around large strike-slip faults could be distributed in a much broader way if the lithosphere deforms as a thin elastic plate rather than an elastic half-space with an embedded dislocation. If this distributed deformation is ignored, and the instantaneous surface deformation field modeled as that resulting from slip on a dislocation below a specified depth embedded in an elastic half-space, the estimated slip rate will inevitably be lower than the true long-term slip rate. This appears to explain why geodetic slip rates proposed for the Altyn Tagh fault (5–10 mm/yr) are lower than some of the geological slip rates.