Review of three-dimensional ecological modelling related to the North Sea shelf system: Part 1: models and their results

The state-of-the-art in modelling the marine ecosystem of the greater North Sea is reviewed, providing an overview especially about three-dimensional models that describe and predict how the marine ecosystem of the greater North Sea area functions and how concentrations and fluxes of biologically important elements vary in space and time, throughout the shelf and over years, in response to physical forcing. Articles with a strong concentration on modelling were selected from the available literature, and all articles around the existing “ecological modelling groups” dealing with the area of the North Sea were sorted in chronological order of their appearance in the literature. We found eleven of such groups and described their different modelling efforts. Selecting the seven three-dimensional models (NORWECOM, GHER, ECOHAM, ERSEM, ELISE, COHERENS and POL3dERSEM), we characterized the complexity of the models, by comparing the resolution in time and space, and the resolution of the trophic structure by discussing the number and kind of state variables and of the processes relating these state variables to each other. view of biogeochemical/ecological modelling for the greater North Sea shows that important findings by model simulations have either confirmed existing knowledge derived from field work or have given new insight into the mechanisms of the functioning of the North Sea system: the temporal and spatial development and magnitude of primary production, its spreading from the coasts to the north-west over the open North Sea, its mechanisms of limitation, the functioning of the pelagic small food web and of the benthic web, the mechanisms of nutrient regeneration, the effects of riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs causing eutrophication of coastal waters, the extent of eutrophication in the North Sea, and the budgets for nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon. The three-dimensional ecological models of the greater North Sea have provided consistent distributions and dynamics of the lower trophic levels on their regional, annual and decadal scales which cannot be derived to this degree of coverage by observations. ate-of-the-art in validation for these models is presented in part 2