Energy-saving decomposition and power consumption forecast: The case of liaoning province in China

To achieve sustainable development of the society, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) proposed in its 11th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development Program a shift in energy-saving target of decreasing energy intensity by 20% in 2010 compared with that of 2005. Liaoning province is one of the oldest industrial bases in China. Policymakers are often confronted with problems relating to adjustment in the development pattern as a means to secure steady economic growth. The power industry is a fundamental energy industry; it plays an important role in realizing of energy-saving targets. Based on the input–output model, this paper sets extensive, planning and 20% energy-saving scenarios in order to analyze energy-saving and power consumption situations for Liaoning by 2010. Through extensive simulations, the levels of energy-saving and power demand under different scenarios are obtained. Results from the analysis show that under the premises of adjusting the ratio of investment and consumption, optimizing products structure, and improving energy use efficiency, it is possible to achieve the proposed energy-saving target. Liaoning’s power consumption can maintain a stable growth trend in the future. The percentage of electricity to the total energy use can also increase to 16% in 2010.