A Solution to the Problem of Extrapolation in Car-Following Modeling Using an Online Fuzzy Neural Network

Car following process is time-varying in essence, due to the involvement of human actions. This paper develops an adaptive technique for car following modeling in a traffic flow. The proposed technique includes an online fuzzy neural network (OFNN) which is able to adapt its rule-consequent parameters to the time-varying processes. The proposed OFNN is first trained by an growing binary tree learning algorithm in offline mode, which produces favorable extrapolation performance, and then, is adapted to the stream of car following data, e.g. velocity and acceleration of the target vehicle, using an adaptive least squares estimation. The proposed approach is validated by means of real-world car following data sets. Simulation results confirm the satisfactory performance of the OFNN for adaptive car following modeling application.