A probabilistic model for cleavage fracture with a length scale––parameter estimation and predictions of stationary crack experiments

This study presents a large experimental investigation in the transition temperature region on a modified A508 steel. Tests were carried out on single-edge-notch-bend specimens with three different crack depth over specimen width ratios to capture the strong constraint effect on fracture toughness. Three test temperatures were considered, covering a range of 85 °C. All specimens failed by cleavage fracture prior to ductile tearing. A recently proposed probabilistic model for the cumulative failure by cleavage was applied to the comprehensive sets of experimental data. This modified weakest link model incorporates a length scale, which together with a threshold stress reduce the scatter in predicted toughness distributions as well as introduces a fracture toughness threshold value. Model parameters were estimated by a robust procedure, which is crucial in applications of probabilistic models to real structures. The conformity between predicted and experimental toughness distributions, respectively, were notable at all the test temperatures.