A probabilistic fracture mechanics model including 3D ductile tearing of bi-axially loaded pipes with surface cracks

This paper presents a probabilistic fracture mechanics model established from three-dimensional FEM analyses of surface cracked pipes subjected to tension load in combination with internal pressure. The models are particularly interesting for offshore pipelines under operational conditions or during laying, where inelastic deformations may occur. In the numerical models, the plastic deformations, including ductile tearing effects, are accounted for by use of the Gurson–Tvergaard–Needleman model. This model is calibrated to represent a typical X65 pipeline steel behaviour under ductile crack growth and collapse. Several parameters are taken into account, such as crack depth, crack length and material hardening. Another important topic is the examination of the influence of bi-axial loading due to internal pressure on capacity. From the results of the deterministic analyses a probabilistic fracture mechanics model is established using the response surface methodology. Two failure criteria are examined to represent the structural capacity. Based on the established model, we illustrate the methodology by examples employing the two different failure criteria solved with first and second order reliability methods.