A probabilistic model for cleavage fracture with a length scale – Parameter estimation and predictions of growing crack experiments

A probabilistic model for the cumulative probability of failure by cleavage fracture was applied to experimental results where cleavage fracture was preceded by ductile crack growth. The model, introduced by Kroon and Faleskog [Kroon M, Faleskog J. A probabilistic model for cleavage fracture with a length scale – influence of material parameters and constraint. Int J Fract 2002;118:99–118], includes a non-local stress with an associated material related length scale, and it also includes a strain measure to account for the number of nucleated cleavage initiation sites. The experiments were performed on single edge cracked bend test specimens with three different crack lengths at the temperature 85 °C, which is in the upper transition region for the steel in question. The ductile rupture process is modelled using the cell model for nonlinear fracture mechanics. The original cleavage fracture model had to be modified in order to account for the substantial number of cleavage initiators being consumed by the ductile process. With this modification, the model was able to accurately capture the experimental failure probability distribution.