Simplified models for assessing annual liquefaction probability — A case study of the Yuanlin area, Taiwan

For management and mitigation of liquefaction hazards on a regional basis, it is generally desirable to evaluate liquefaction hazards in terms of annual probability of liquefaction (APL). In this study, an approach that combines the knowledge-based, clustered partitioning technique with the Hasofer–Lind reliability method is developed for estimating the annual liquefaction probability. Because it is generally difficult to validate the computed annual liquefaction probability, the results obtained from a modified version of the Davis and Berrillʹs energy dissipation model are used as a reference. The two models are examined with borehole data in the Yuanlin, Taiwan area that were investigated shortly after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake. Results of the analysis reveal that annual probabilities of liquefaction estimated by the two models are consistent with each other and both deemed reasonable.