A fuzzy robust evaluation model for selecting and ranking NPD projects using Bayesian belief network and weight-restricted DEA

Due to brutal business competition, new product development (NPD) has become a key factor for promoting business sustainability. To help a company determine the direction of NPD for the future, this study applies the fuzzy analytical hierarchy procedure (AHP) and fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA) to develop an evaluation and ranking methodology, assisting decision makers to select NPD projects with development potential and high added value. Because of the high risk characteristic of NPD, this study employs the Bayesian belief network (BBN) technology to create the risk evaluation models to assist the top managers in analyzing and measuring the NPD risks. Finally, this paper employs the development projects of the electronic extension cards as a case study for explanation and verification of significant benefits of the methodology proposed by this study.