Dynamic preventive maintenance strategy for an aging and deteriorating production system

This paper proposes a dynamic preventive maintenance strategy for a multi-state deteriorating production system. A real-time operating state can be derived via the healthy index. A time-dependent state transition probability matrix is used to describe the aging and deteriorating system. The current probability transition matrix and the aging factor are estimated based on historical data. Then one can update the transition probability matrix the next time in terms of the aging factor. Multiple actions at risk are provided to maintain the system with time spent considered. The optimal maintenance action at each operating state and at each specific time is obtained at the minimum expected total cost per unit time during a given finite time interval.