Application of Bayesian networks in prognostics for a new Integrated Vehicle Health Management concept

The aeronautics industry is attempting to implement important changes to its maintenance strategy. The article presents a new framework for making final decision on aeroplane maintenance actions. It emphasizes on the use of prognostics within this global framework to replace corrective and Preventive Maintenance practise for a predictive maintenance to minimize the cost of the maintenance support and to increase aircraft/fleet operability. The main objective of the article is to show the Bayesian network model as a useful technique for prognosis. The specific use case for predicting brake wear on the plane is developed based on this technique. The network allows estimate brake wear from the aircraft operational plan. This model, together with other models to make predictions for various components of the aeroplane (that should be monitored) offers a forward-looking approach of the status of the plane, allowing later the evaluation of different operational plans based on operational risk assessment and economic cost of each one of them depending on the scheduled checks.