Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ∼106–107 m3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ∼1–10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ∼1–10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.