Methodology for rapid seismic risk assessment of health structures: Case study of the hospital system in Florence, Italy

During earthquakes, in order to manage the emergency properly and arrive at the most efficient hospital response it is a good idea to carry out a simple, rapid and reliable vulnerability assessment of seismic events. The “holistic” approach inherent in the methodology described here is not exclusively based on structural parameters but includes a combination of two main research-based approaches: the theory of complex systems analysis with the use of an input–output inoperability (Leontief) model and a rapidseismic vulnerability assessment with the field data collection using the World Health Organization evaluation forms. In the context of the European Commissionʹs Framework Program 7 project “MOVE—Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe”, the methodology was applied to the hospital system in Florence, where there are five main medical centers. Rapid seismic analysis was carried out by considering spatial and temporal exposure under two main scenarios. The proposed methodology was applied to rapid assessment of seismic risk in the Florence hospital system, which includes five health structures. Only one hospital provided a treatment capacity that exceeded medical needs. All the other hospitals had a post-event treatment capacity that was lower than the forecast level of local demand for hospital care. Regarding the intrinsic security situation, only two hospitals presented higher values than average, while the structure closest to the earthquake epicenter had the lowest intrinsic security value, with almost 40% of its general patient and ICU beds rendered insecure.