Predictive Value of Cardiovascular Risk Factors for Risk Assessment in Cohort of Shiraz Heart Study

Background: Risk assessment for fast growing burden of cardiovascular diseases is very important and difficult. As a response to this challenge, in particular, genetic risk factors which potentially modify risk, we conducted a survey of primary data registry of Shiraz Heart Study on integration and application of family history data in prevention of cardiovascular disorders. Methods: This study is a longitudinal cohort project to be extended from subpopulations of different job groups to the community. Results: Parental family history of MI, diabetes mellitus (DM), hyperlipidemia (HPL), hypertension (HTN) was reported more frequently among females than males. Histories of MI, DM, HPL, and HTN in both parents were respectively positive in 2.6%, 2%, 4.6%, and 7.9 % of the participants. Odd ratios (OR) for risk of MI from family history of MI were 2.7; risk of DM from family history of DM 4.5; risk of HPL from family history of HPL 2.04; and risk of HTN from family history HTN 4.7. Also, family history of MI modifies risk of HPL (OR=1.7, P < 0.0001); and family history of DM modifies risk of HPL (OR=2.04, P < 0.0001). Conclusion: Our primary result shows potent application of family history data in risk assessment of cardiovascular outcome. In particular, HTN appears as a silent and leading risk modifier. In regard to the course of continuing Shiraz Heart Study integration of family history of risk factors crucial in public health we suggest to adopt a network of electronic health records from the “Health House” to the “Heart House”.