Stochastic Decision Making in Manufacturing Environments

Decision making plays an important role in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, statistics and many other fields. In each field, decision making consists of identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues that define the decision. In any field, the nature of the decisions is affected by environmental characteristics. In this paper, we are considered the production planning problem in a stochastic and complex environment, i.e. the environment of electronic equipment production, where planning is faced with variable results and changeable requests. In this complicated environment, we are encountered with joint replenishment, variable yields and exchanging demands and many other complex variables related to inventory management and control systems that have complicated and unpredictable behavior and could not be modeled in a simple way. We are trying to model this environment as a stochastic problem. The aim of mathematical model is managing and controlling inventories in such a complex production environment. We also try to solve the proposed stochastic problem by estimation procedures. The planning problem is devised as a gain-maximizing stochastic program. Also we use two mathematical and simulation software to predict the behavior of production system in various situations. The results of simulations are mentioned in the paper.