Epidemiologic Transition in Iran with Emphasis on the Third Stage of Transition

Introduction: During the last half century, all indices of mortality imply the prompt and continuous decrease of nationwide mortality. Alongside reduction of mortality, there are comprehensive forms of mortality transition causes, from epidemical and other communicable diseases such as mothersʹ (birth giving) mortalities and birth related ones, to other causes like chronic diseases related to lifestyle and aging. Methods: This study investigated stages of epidemiological transition in Iran with emphasis on the third transition and finally predicted this trend in future decades. Results: the results show that Iran has been through the third stage of epidemiological transition for two recent decades since large proportion of deaths are related to chronic disease such as cardiovascular disease and life expectancy at birth has decreased to 70 years. Furthermore, signs of the fourth transition in Iran have been observed in recent years, because as deaths caused by chronic diseases have increased, the mean age of death has also increased remarkably. Conclusion: epidemiological transition dynamic and changes of death causes must be considered according to other demographic components. Reduction of death rate, fertility related changes, and as a result changes of age structure are some causes that influence on the epidemiological transition in Iran and will be impressive in the coming years.