Author/Authors :
Tabrizi, Reza Health Policy Research Center - Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran , Zolala, Farzaneh Regional knowledge Hub of HIV/AIDS Surveillance - Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran , Nasirian, Maryam Regional Knowledge Hub of HIV/AIDS Surveillance - Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran , Baneshi, Mohammad Reza Research Centre for Modeling in Health - Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran , Etminan, Abbas Department of Internal Medicine - School of Medicine - Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran , Sekhavati, Eghbal Larestan School of Medical Sciences, Laretsan, Iran , Khodadost, Mahmoud Department of Epidemiology - Faculty of Public Health - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Haghdoost, Ali Akbar Research Center for Modelling in Health - Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Abstract :
Background: Chronic kidney disease is asymptomatic until its last stages and though it is increasing globally,
we are faced with paucity of a population-based model to assess this disease, particularly in developing countries.
Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and trends of CKD according to a new estimation
method.
Methods: Using multiplier method, we estimated the numbers of different stages of CKD based on the number
of patients with end stage renal failure from 2006 to 2016. The required multipliers were extracted from a simulation
of the disease in Kerman following a dynamic model. The 95% uncertainty interval was computed using
Monte-Carlo technique with 10,000 iterations.
Results: The prevalence of CKDA (GFR<=90mL/min/1.73m2) and CKDB (GFR less than 60mL/min/1.73m2)
patients were estimated to be 7.6% (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 5.7-9.1%) and 1.1% (95% UI, 0.8-1.3%),
respectively in 2011. The method revealed that the prevalence may rise up to 25.7% (95% UI, 18.2-32.5%) and
3.7% (95% UI, 2.7-4.5%) for CKDA and CKDB, respectively in 2016, indicating approximately 3.3 times increase
for both figures.
Conclusion: This study predicted an increase in the prevalence of CKD in the future. This may be due to the
increasing life expectancy of the population, the increase in the prevalence of non- communicable diseases such
as hypertension and diabetes, or patients’ survival due to receiving better support. Therefore, the policymakers
should be concerned and well informed about this increase.
Keywords :
Prediction in Iran , Multiplier Method , Chronic Kidney Disease , Chronic Renal Failure
