Dispersed Ethnic Groups and Probability of Civil War Onset, 1975 – 2001

There are very few ethnically homogenous countries in the international system. The significant majority of the countries are multi-ethnic. Many ethnic groups are not concentrated in a single country, on the contrary, dispersed in several countries. Literature of conflict studies has not paid adequate attention to the impact of dispersed ethnic groups on civil war onset. This paper attempts to expand the theoretical dimension of the relationship between dispersed ethnic groups and civil war onset. It intends to find out if dispersion of ethnic groups between neighboring countries increases the probability of civil war onset. Additionally, the paper tests if some certain conditions between neighboring countries have any influence on the probability of civil war onset such as relative deprivation, democracy and wealth. It finds support for dispersion of ethnic groups only in the Middle East region while confirms the inverted relationship. Relative deprivation and democracy differences do not matter while wealth difference increases the probability of civil war onset in the richer country.