Investigating carbon emission abatement long-term plan with the aim of energy system modeling; case study of Iran

Increasing electric vehicles usage, as a promising solution for environmental issues, might have unexpected implications, since it entails some changes in different sectors and scales in energy system. In this respect, this research aims at investigating the long-term impacts of electric vehicles deployment on Iran's energy system. Accordingly, Iran's energy system was analyzed by LEAP model in demand, supply, and transmission sides for all fuels and two different scenarios. Existing policies with limited optimistic assumptions was investigated as "reference" scenario. Alternatively, the other scenario, "electric cars" scenario, is gradually for substitution of electric vehicles for 15% gasoline cars until 2030 and renewable energy sources have more contribution in electricity production. Finally, carbon dioxide emission was predicted and compared in both scenarios for 25 years later. Results indicate that with "electric cars" scenario at 2030, Iran would have by 9.2 % and 1.9% less Carbon Dioxide emissions in comparison to the "reference" scenario in the transportation sector and total system, respectively.