Effects of technological development and electricity price reductions on adoption of residential heat pumps in Ontario, Canada

Home heating accounts for most of the residential energy use in Canada. While natural gas, oil-fired furnaces, and electric resistance are the dominant heating system choices, heat pumps have become a viable alternative. Heat pumps with lower minimum operating temperatures and better performance are increasing both their effectiveness and their number of hours of useful service. In this study, we apply System Dynamics to analyze the effects of technological development on the rate at which homeowners adopt residential air source heat pumps. We test the effects of low, moderate and high rates of technological development, as well as reduced electricity and carbon pricing on the predicted rate of adoption in Ontario. From the perspective of the use stage in life cycle assessment, we estimate energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions. We predict that using heat pumps will substantially reduce overall energy consumption, and in Ontario, where electricity is generated with little use of fossil fuels, it will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions.