The Inventory System Management under Uncertain Conditions and Time Value of Money

This study develops a inventory model to determine ordering policy for deteriorating items with shortages under markovian inflationary conditions. Markov processes include process whose future behavior cannot be accurately predicted from its past behavior (except the current or present behavior) and which involves random chance or probability. Behavior of business or economy, flow of traffic, progress of an epidemic, all are examples of Markov processes. Since the far previous inflation rate don’t have a great impact on the current inflation rate, so, It is logical to consider changes of the inflation rate as a markov process. In addition, It is assumed that the cost of the items changes as a Continuous – Time - Markov Process too. The inventory model is described by differential equations over the time horizon along with the present value method. The objective is minimization of the expected present value of costs over the time horizon. The numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are provided to analyze the effect of changes in the values of the different parameters on the optimal solution.