Title of article :
Is There Any Difference to Use Various Definition of Money in Analyzing Money Neutrality?
Author/Authors :
Sahabi, Bahram Faculty of Management and Economics - Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran , Keikha, Alireza Faculty of Management and Economics - Tarbiat Modares University , Jafarimehr, Esmaeil Faculty of Economics - Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract :
During past years, economists have been endeavoring to determine both
relationship and causality direction between real macroeconomic and nominal
economic variables. In this regard, many studies have been carried out on the
relation between money and inflation, resulting in the introduction of the notion
of money neutrality which implies that permanent change of money supply just
affects the nominal variables and has no lasting and real effect on production and
employment. Furthermore, even when constant changes of money growth have no
real impact whatsoever (except on real monetary equilibriums); money is stated to
be super neutral in the long run. Although the majority of economists (with
disparate schools of thought) concur with long-term money neutrality, there are
still different opinions on the short-term and middle-term neutrality of the money.
In following some major of them are presented. This paper investigates the
existence of money neutrality in the Iranian economy applying Fisher and Seater
approach during 1973 and 2014. The time series analysis, ARIMA model, is used
to examine the problem and we consider various monetary aggregates, M1 and M2.
Results show that we cannot reject the hypothesis test of money neutrality in Iran.
Because all variables are non-stationary and integrated of order one I (1) we can
only test the money neutrality. So it is strongly verified that money is neutral and
it does not have any significant effects on real non-oil GDP in Iran. Also it was
shown that the results are not sensitive to different aggregate money supply
Farsi abstract :
در اين مقاله به دنبال بررسي خنثايي پول در اقتصاد ايران با استفاده از روش كاربردي فيشر و سيتر براي دوره 1973
تا 2014 هستيم. از تحليل سري هاي زماني و مدل ARIMA براي بررسي مسئله استفاده شده است. بدين منظور
2 تعريف مختلف M1 و M2 براي پول استفاده شد. آزمون مانايي متغيرها هم براي لگاريتم GDP غيرنفتي و هم
براي لگاريتم متغيرهاي پولي تأييدكننده انباشتگي از درجه اول است. بنابراين فقط مي توانيم خنثايي پول را در
بلندمدت بررسي كنيم. نتايج بررسي ها نشان مي دهد كه نمي توان فرضيه خنثايي پول دربلندمدت رادرايران ردكرد.
قويا تأييد مي كند كه پول خنثي است ودربلندمدت اثرمعنيداري بر GDPغيرنفتي نمي گذارد. ً بنابراين اين بررسي
همچنين نتايج نشان داده است كه تغييردرتعريف پول از M1 به M2 تأثيري برنتايج نگذاشته است.
Keywords :
Iran , Stationary Test , ARIMA Model , Money Neutrality