Research Paper: A Model for Predicting Hospitalized Children Appropriate for Early Discharge During Disasters

Background: Early Discharge is one of the most well-known strategies to increase hospital capacity during disasters, which is applicable by recognizing the patients appropriate for early discharge. Therefore, the current study was conducted to estimate a model for predicting hospitalized children appropriate for early discharge during disasters based on the attending physician’s opinion. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 210 pediatric patients hospitalized in the emergency and pediatrics wards of the hospitals covered by Mashhad University of Medical Sciences. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data. Questionnaires were completed at the patient’s bedside by a trained questioner. The logistic regression was used to analyze the data. Results: Five variables, such as consciousness level (OR=4.677), dehydration status (2.596), ability to take milk/swallow (OR=1.930), blood oxygen saturation level (OR=1.186), and body temperature (OR=0.530) were determined as predictors for children appropriate for early discharge during disasters. The area under the ROC curve was calculated 0.848, which indicated a good curve fit of the estimated model. Conclusion: The model presented in the current study can help clinical staff identify hospitalized children appropriate for early discharge during disasters.