Author/Authors :
Ramezanian, Maryam Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences - Kerman, Iran , Haghdoost , Ali Akbar Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences - Kerman, Iran , Mehrolhassani ,Mohammad Hossein Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences - Kerman, Iran , Abolhallaje , Masoud Ministry of Health & Medical Education - Tehran, Iran , Dehnavieh , Reza Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences - Kerman, Iran , Najafi ,Behzad Tabriz Health Services Management Research Center - Health Management and Safety Promotion Research Institute - Tabriz University of Medical Sciences - Tabriz, Iran , Fazaeli , Ali Akbar Department of Health management and economic - School of Public Health and Research Center for Health Sciences - Hamadan university of Medical Sciences - Hamadan, Iran
Abstract :
Accurate economic forecast has important effects on governmental policy and economic planning, and it can help policymakers to make decisions for future and create new infrastructures for the development of new forecasting methods. This study calculated total health expenditure, public health expenditure and out of pocket (OOP) payment for 2016-2020.
Methods: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process (ARIMA) is one of the most important forecasting models. In this study, five-year values were forecasted using EViews8 software according to health expenditures in Iran from 1971 to 2015.
Results: Applying annual data for total health expenditure, resulted in the ARIMA (1,1,1) model being the most appropriate to predict these costs. The results of this study indicate that total health expenditures will reach from about 1228338 billion IRR in 2016 to 2698346 billion IRR in 2020 and the amount of out of pocket (OOP) will become more than 41% of total health expenditure in 2020.
Keywords :
Forecast , OOP , Health expenditures , ARIMA model
