FIB-4 Is a Potential Tool for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Stratification in Ethnically Diverse Chronic Hepatitis B Patients When Using Specific Cutoff Values

Background: In a previous publication, a FIB-4 cutoff value of ≥ 1.25, which had been determined in an Asian population, did not allow reliable prediction of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a patient collective with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) of predominantly non-Asian descent. Objectives: Here, we aimed to validate the modified FIB-4 cutoff values as a means of stratifying the HCC risk in a non-Asian cohort seen at an outpatient university hospital liver unit in Germany. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 350 adult patients with CHB infection. We recorded demographics, laboratory parameters, results from liver imaging, serological hepatitis B markers, antiviral treatment, and histology. We separated patients into two groups based on individual FIB-4 levels. We, then, analyzed the patients’ hazard ratios for HCC and adjusted it for sex, age, antiviral medication, duration of CHB infection, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and type 2 diabetes. An additional sub-analysis was performed by including only non-cirrhotic patients to determine the validity of the proposed cutoffs in that cohort. Results: The median duration of follow-up was 8.9 years with a range of 1 - 21.3 years. Our patients were 65% males. In comparison with patients that had a low FIB-4 (< 0.3635), those with elevated FIB-4 (≥ 0.3635) had an HCC incidence hazard ratio of 11.67 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.73 - 49.96; P = 0.001) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 7.90 (95% CI: 1.58 - 39.39; P = 0.012). Elevated FIB-4 non-cirrhotic patients had a hazard ratio (HR) of 15.88 (95% CI: 2.04 - 123.20) for HCC incidence (P < 0.0001) and an adjusted HR of 11.99 (95% CI: 1.36 - 105.72) (P = 0.001). Conclusions: A FIB-4 value of < 0.3635 appears to be a clinical indicator for a low likelihood of HCC incidence in non-Asian patients with CHB with or without cirrhosis. Further studies in patients of diverse descent are necessary to prove its utility as a clinical tool in this setting.