A study of fertility trend in the urban and rural areas of Sabzevar during 2002 to 2014: Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Background: Fertility in Iran has declined dramatically over the last three decades. The rapid decline in fertility in Iran has taken place in all geographical areas and in all social and demographic subgroups. This study aims to evaluate the fertility trend in Sabzevar’s towns and villages during a 13 year period. Methods: The present study is a descriptive-analytic one. The information about fertility was obtained from Sabzevar Health Department according to the age groups and the proportion of married women on an annual basis for urban and rural areas separately. The indexes of fertility rate and age-specific fertility were calculated by using Excel software. The data were analyzed using joinpoint regression 3.4 software at a significance level of P 0.05. Results: The results of the study showed that in all of the years of the study the total fertility rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The total fertility rate in rural areas has risen from 1.97 in 2002 by 1.5% annual growth to 2.28 in 2014. In urban areas, the fertility rate has reached 2.31 in 2002, with a mean annual increase of 1.7%, to 2.63 in the year 2014. The highest percentage of annual increase in urban and rural areas has occurred in the age group of 15 to 19 years. Furthermore, family planning policies in Iran have had a significant impact on increasing fertility in the age group of 20 to 24 years. Conclusions: Although the overall fertility rate in Sabzevar is almost at the replacement rate, due to the demographic policies of the country – which is aimed at increasing the fertility rate –, it is recommended that, along with the implementation and the continuous monitoring of these comprehensive health policies in this city, health care policymakers perform some programs to reduce pregnancy in high-risk age groups.