Analysis of trends in birth outcomes and fertility measures in the rural population of east Azerbaijan province, Iran: 2001 - 2013

Birth outcomes and fertility measures are commonly evaluated in Maternal and Child Health Integrated Program (MCHIP) in the field of public health. Given the key role of time- trend study in the projection of current data to the future, this population-based study aimed to describe the significant changes of birth outcomes and fertility measures in the rural population of East Azerbaijan Province, Iran. Methods: In this time-trend analysis, primary data of several birth outcomes and fertility measures were collected from the vital statistics of rural populations in the East Azerbaijan, recorded during 2001 - 2013. Data analysis was performed using simple linear regression to examine linear trends in these indicators. Results: In this study, upward linear trends were observed in crude birth rate (R2 = 0.92, P≤0.001), fertility rate of women aging> 35 years (R2 = 0.74, P≤0.001), and low birth weight (R2 = 0.67, P≤0.001). In addition, a downward linear trend was documented for neonatal mortality rate (R2 = 0.92, P≤0.001).For other indicators such as stillbirth rate and adolescent fertility rate, non-linear trends were recorded. Conclusion: Despite the noticeable reduction in the rates of neonatal mortality and stillbirth, maternal and child health is still at risk in the rural population of East Azerbaijan due to the pregnancies outside the typical childbearing age and increased rate of LBW.