Identifying and prioritizing the drivers of the future of public hospitals in Iran

Background: Rapid development in today's modern world have made predicting the future difficult. Hospitals, as a major complex in a community, are no exception. Knowing the future facilitates laying plans for it. To predict the future, knowing the factors affecting the future is crucial. This study was therefore conducted to identify and predict the factors affecting the future of hospitals in Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in three steps. The drivers of the future of hospitals in Iran were listed by analyzing the results of a literature review and then semi-structured interviews with hospital experts. Afterward, the effect of individual drivers was determined using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) by formulated in excel software. Results: Based on the results of the first Phase, 30 effective drivers were identified in 6 areas of modern technology, economy, politics, demography and community, environment, and culture. Prioritization results showed that modern technology (0.246) and economic factors (0.198) had priority over the other factors. Moreover, the effects of sub-factors such as modern information technology and technologies on the future of public hospitals in Iran were more significant compared to those of the other factors. Conclusion: The present results showed that information technology and modern technology, as well as the economy, were the two main drivers of the future of public hospitals in Iran. Hospitals should identify and lay plans for the mechanisms through which the two factors affect hospitals, given their failure to control the upward trends of the factors.