A response-based approach to online prediction of generating unit angular stability

In this paper, rst, a rotor angle trajectory model based on polynomial functions is proposed. Afterwards, a response-based approach to the online prediction of the angular instability of a power system is presented. The proposed method utilizes bus phase angle data measured by a Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) at a Point of Common Coupling (PCC) of the power plant transformer to the bulk power grid. In the prediction process, by computing the second-order derivative of post-fault data, the starting point of the calculation Data Window (DW) is determined. Next, a fth-degree polynomial curve is tted to the designated DW to predict the angular curve of a generating unit. Based on the sign of the rst-order derivative of the predicted curve, the angular stability of the generating unit is judged. This approach is testied on the western system coordinating council standard test bed under dierent operation and fault-type scenarios. By taking into account various fault conditions and their associated occurrence probability, a probabilistic index is also dened to sum up the overall performance of the new method. Simulation results conrm that the proposed method outperforms the existing ones in terms of both accuracy and speed. Prediction results could be used in Generator Rejection Schemes (GRS) to prevent severe power plant outages.