POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DAMAGING FROST DURING GROWING SEASON OF VEGETABLES

This study has, for the first time, analyzed the potential impacts of climate change on damaging frost during growing season of vegetable crops at a high horizontal resolution of 10 × 10 km in the Bohemian Plateau. The main objective of this study was to assess the potential changes in the timing of the last spring frost, the first autumn frost for three frost severities (mild, moderate, and severe), and the length of the frost-free period during growing season of vegetables based on the regional climate model ALADIN-Climate/CZ simulated data. The daily minimum air temperature from 116 grid points throughout the studied area for the current (1961–2000) and two future climates under A1B SRES scenario (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) was used. The projections suggest that during the mid-21st century, the dates of the last spring frost will end on an earlier date (by ≥ 12 days) and the first frost date in the autumn will be delayed to a later date (by ≥ 18 days) across the Bohemian Plateau. Under the A1B scenario the frost-free period will be extended by ≥ 35 days compared with the current climate. Projected future climate conditions could result in significant shifts in the median of the last spring frost and the first autumn frost to earlier and later dates, respectively, relative to the current climate