Economic Factors in Determining the Penetration Coefficient of Mobile Phone in Iran .

In this paper we have studied the adoption rate of mobile phone in Iran via the new technology diffusion models approach. The result show that its diffusion pattern has a S shaped curve which is consistent with logistic model. Effective factors in diffusion pattern are: population, GDP, digitalization of the telecommunication system, government expenditures on the telecommunication sector, price of mobile phone and the inflation rate. We have also found that the logistic model has a batter explanatory power than the time series models.