A Forecasting Model for Satisfying the Demand of International Flight Passengers Having Domestic Flight Connection

This paper deals with one of the main problems, which is faced by Saudi Arabian Airlines (SAUDIA). The problem of the passengers who have international flights and cannot able to find their seats easily on their domestic flights to have a smooth connection to their international flights. As a result, those passengers are left with no choice except to look for any alternative Airlines, making the demand on domestic flights of Saudi Arabian Airlines diminish and increase the revenue of its competitors. The paper focused on the problem of passengers who look for seats on domestic flights between Abha and Riyadh to continue their international flights. The data collected for the demand on fourteen international destinations, which have a connection between Abha and Riyadh, emphasizing on the analysis of the three top international destinations, which are in high demand. Using descriptive statistics, ARIMA (box and Jenkins) procedure and multiple regressions, a forecasting model was developed to determine the expected demand on the domestic flights under study. Recommendations were made to SAUDIA operational strategy (i.e., the types of aircrafts and their capacity) to fulfill the demand in order to maximize the total revenue of Saudi Arabian Airlines in comparison with its competitors.