The Need for a Quantitative Analysis of Risk and Reliability for Formulation of Water Budget in Jordan

Jordan is one of the most water-deficient countries globally, with a water demand consistently exceeding the water availability. The present paper reviews the state of current water resources and programmes being implemented to tackle this challenge. The authors of the present paper identify the recent trends and potential risks of maintaining a reliable water supply, discuss the past and the recent developments and extrapolate future water needs. The analysis found that the largest pressures on water supply come from population increases, the likely long-term consequences of climate change and groundwater over-abstraction. The authors conclude that, to date, projections of water use, supply and demand have not considered the different socio-economic factors and the various environmental and technological changes in a quantitative way. A new approach is suggested to quantify the future available water emphasising the need for quantitative assessment of the most influential pressures determining future water availability and use.