FORECASTING MANGO PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL APPROACH

Production of Mango in Pakistan has increased due to use of improved farm inputs and better management practices. Despite an increased production and rising demand in the export market, the potential of Mango export has, however, not been fully achieved. Pakistan has comparative advantage in the production of Mango and enormous potential exists for its export in the vast Middle East market. The study was undertaken to forecast production of Mango for the years 2005 through 2024. The Log linear and ARIMA models were used to forecast production of Mango. The predicted value of production of Mango for the year 2024 worked out as 1431010 metric tons, which means that an increased output of Mango would be available for consumption as well as for export. The paper underlines the need for taking measure to increase export of Mango by improving its quality, packaging and complying with international standards required under the WTO regime