Author/Authors :
Zinoviev, A.T. Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IWEP SB RAS), Barnaul, Altai Krai, Russian Federation , Galakhov, V.P. Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IWEP SB RAS), Barnaul, Altai Krai, Russian Federation , Kosheleva, E.D. Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IWEP SB RAS), Barnaul, Altai Krai, Russian Federation , Lovtskaya, O.V Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IWEP SB RAS), Barnaul, Altai Krai, Russian Federation
Abstract :
The research is aimed at studying the impact of climatic changes on the formation
of surface runoff in the south West Siberia. To solve this problem, a statistical analysis of
discharge data series on rivers in the area under study, and the simulation of the surface runoff
in the model basins with the use of water balance equations were made. The dynamics of
precipitation and air temperature during the warm period of the last two thousand years in
the south of West Siberia was calculated, and the forecast for the next centuries was made.
Using the results of statistical analysis of data series of average annual discharges for major
rivers in the south of West Siberia the linear trends were calculated. The change in annual
discharges for the last decades was estimated. The discharge forecast for the following 10
– 20 years was given, and the zones of its increase /decrease in the area under study were
identified. Based on the water balance equation, the variable-based calculation of the runoff
in the model basins for long-term annual average normal year and the years with scenario
variations of temperature and precipitation was made.
Keywords :
observation , flow rate , average annual river flow , trend , forecast , climate change , river , West Siberia
