A Projection of Land Needed for Settlements and Conversion of Paddy Fields in Solok City

Abstract. The city of Solok, despite being a growing urban area, cannot entirely abandon its agricultural sector due to its influence on the development of the region and its contribution to maintaining national food security. The development of settlement in the city of Solok needs to consider the existing paddy fields while avoiding unnecessary conversion, which should be a last resort. Infrastructure development should not be directed to the existing and potential paddy fields, since, generally, settlement development prefers these areas. This study aimed to estimate the land needed for settlements based on population projections, the assessment of land suitability for paddy field by a spatial analysis and a simulation of land use change considering infrastructure as driving factor. The methods used in this study are the Saturation Model, Spatial Analysis, Markov Chain and Cellular Automata (CA) Analysis. The results demonstrate that: (1) the estimated population in 2031 using the saturation model will be 71,524 inhabitants, which would require 223.08 Ha of settlements; (2) the existing paddy fields cover 971.27 Ha, some parts were categorized unsuitable due to its slope but this was overcome by the construction of terraces; and (3) the Markov Chain and CA analysis predicted over 150 Ha of paddy field conversion in Solok by 2024. The road development plan in Solok City tends to follow the market trend directed at the existing and potential paddy field areas. The study predicts a significant loss of paddy fields, especially in areas with a high suitability class.