Lung Cancer Mortality in Tuscany from 1971 to 2010 and Its Connections with Silicosis: A Space-Cohort Analysis Based on Shared Models

Lung cancer mortality in Tuscany (Italy) for males, from 1971 and 2010, is investigated. A hierarchical Bayesian model for spacetime disease mapping is introduced. Such a model belongs to the class of shared random efect models and exploits the birth-cohort as the relevant time dimension. It allows for highlighting common and specifc patterns of risk for each birth-cohort. The results show that diferent birth-cohorts exhibit quite diferent spatial patterns, even if the socioeconomic status is taken into account. In fact, there were diferent occupational exposures before and afer the Second World War. The birth-cohort 1930–35 exhibits high relative risks related to particular areas. Tis fact could be connected with occupational exposure to risk factors for silicosis, perhaps a prognostic status for lung cancer.