Vessel Track Prediction Based on Fractional Gradient Recurrent Neural Network with Maneuvering Behavior Identification

To improve the accuracy of ship track prediction, a fractional-order gradient descent method is adopted into a recurrent neural network (RNN). The convergence of the proposed algorithm is proved. Identification of ship maneuvering behavior, atmospheric information, and oceanographic information is considered in vessel tack prediction. The ship track of Xiamen Port is predicted using the new algorithm. Error analysis is made with different factional orders and traffic busy degrees. Results show that the testing and training error differs with different fractional orders. The predicted track results can not only improve the efficiency of marine traffic management but also prevent and warn the safety accidents, so as to avoid accidents.