Author/Authors :
Lan, Lan West China Hospital - Sichuan University - Chengdu, China , Luo, Jiawei West China Hospital - Sichuan University - Chengdu, China , Yang, Xiaoyan West China Hospital - Sichuan University - Chengdu, China , Yang, Dujiang Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery - West China Hospital - Sichuan University - Chengdu, China , Li, Mengjiao West China Hospital - Sichuan University - Chengdu, China , Chen, Fangwei West China School of Public Health - Sichuan University - Chengdu, China , Zeng, Nianyin Department of Instrumental and Electrical Engineering - Xiamen University - Fujian, China , Zhou, Xiaobo School of Biomedical Informatics - University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston - Houston, USA
Abstract :
In order to find the quantitative relationship between timing of surgical intervention and risk of death in necrotizing
pancreatitis. Methods. The generalized additive model was applied to quantitate the relationship between surgical time (from the
onset of acute pancreatitis to first surgical intervention) and risk of death adjusted for demographic characteristics, infection,
organ failure, and important lab indicators extracted from the Electronic Medical Record of West China Hospital of Sichuan
University. Results. We analyzed 1,176 inpatients who had pancreatic drainage, pancreatic debridement, or pancreatectomy
experience of 15,813 acute pancreatitis retrospectively. It showed that when surgical time was either modelled alone or adjusted
for infection or organ failure, an L-shaped relationship between surgical time and risk of death was presented. When surgical
time was within 32.60 days, the risk of death was greater than 50%. Conclusion. There is an L-shaped relationship between
timing of surgical intervention and risk of death in necrotizing pancreatitis.
