ESTIMATING MANUFACTURING TRADE STRUCTURES AND ELASTICITIES IN TURKEY: AN INDUCTIVE APPROACH

This study attempts to estimate the manufacturing export and import structures of traded goods valuing above two million American Dollars.Estimated models are found non linear with respect to manufacturing terms of trade adjusted United States Dollar exchange rate, but log linear with respect to the world prices, domestic manufacturing prices and outputs for the period of 1982-2000. The manufacturing export world output elasticity is found more elastic than the manufacturing import domestic output elasticity. An equivalent increase in world and domestic output improves trade balance, Ceteris Paribus, and contributes to the economic growth. The manufacturing import world price elasticity was estimated less inelastic than the manufacturing export world price elasticity. A percentage increase in world prices is able to increase Turkey’s manufacturing trade deficit, Ceteris Paribus. Manufacturing export and import goods are found complementary implying intraindustry manufacturing trade.