The Support to UMNO and PAS in 1999 and 2004 Malaysian Parliamentary Elections, and its Implication for the 2008 Election

The three subsequent elections from 1999 to 2008 saw the dynamic supports for UMNO, a ruling party, and PAS, one of effective opposition parties. In the 1999 election, the support for UMNO was declining compared to the previous election results. This was partly due to the expulsion of Anwar Ibrahim, the former Deputy Prime Minister from UMNO and the government in 1998. On the other hand, PAS gained more votes that enabled them to take over the state of Terengganu from UMNO. However, the 2004 election saw the greater support for UMNO that permitted them to regain the state of Terengganu from PAS. In both the 1999 and 2004 elections, UMNO obtained more parliamentary seats compared to PAS despite the votes of the Malays electoral constituencies for UMNO diminished. Using a statistical analysis, this paper attempts to examine the impact of both the 1999 and 2004 elections on the last 2008 election. It analyses the factors that contributed to the dynamic results of the three elections.