A CRITICAL REVIEW OF MODELLING TECHNIQUES FOR THE SOCIO–TECHNICAL SYSTEMS OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY an‎d CARBON EMISSIONS

The purpose of this paper is to identify the most suitable modelling approach to conceptualise the complex socio-technical systems (STS) of household energy consumption and carbon emissions (HECCE). The literature review approach was adopted for the study. Before the review of literature for modelling techniques of STS, the paper first reviewed literature on systems-based approach of scientific inquiry as they form the theoretical knowledge base underpinning the STS. This is mainly to give the philosophical backgrounds of STS. Literature search was then conducted. The results of the review were analysed for the modelling techniques for STS and the following techniques were identified: actor network theory, agent-based modelling technique, Bayesian belief network, configuration modelling, fuzzy logic, morphological analysis, social network analysis, and system dynamics. These techniques were further probed for their capability in capturing the problem of modelling HECCE against a set of criteria. A careful appraisal of all the techniques suggests that the system dynamics approach is the most suitable technique capable of conceptualising the problem under investigation in the context of this paper. The study complements the body of knowledge by adding to building physics, econometric, and regression-based approaches that have traditionally in existence for capturing the HECCE issues. The study is original in that it identified novel approaches capable of exploring the complex intrinsic interrelationships existing among the STS of dwellings, occupants, and environment as relates to HECCE.