A Model of Coronavirus Pandemic Spread with Lockdown and Quarantine

Abstract. Globally emerged Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19), has generated multi- ple damages in the worldwide community and caused enormous mortality. In this pa- per, a researcher develops SLEAIQRD (Susceptible-Lockdown-Exposed-Asymptomatic- Symptomatic-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) COVID-19 spread model. The disease-free equi- librium globally asymptotically stable when R0 ⩽ 1. an‎d also endemic equilibrium stable whenever R0 > 1. COVID-19 spread dies out when R0 ⩽ 1, while the spread continue in the community when R0 > 1. For the lockdown intervention measure, at least 30% of coverage and competence needed to mitigate and control COVID-19 spread. Early identication, quar- antine suspected peoples, quickly laboratory tests, and isolation of contagious individuals are inherent for COVID-19 containment. The researcher's conclusion suggests that high coverage of the contact tracing process is vital to stop the pandemic outbreak. Further curiously, beyond 60% exposed quarantine and a minimum of 50% isolation of infectious individuals overcome the burden and begin to control the COVID-19 outbreak. Numerical solutions strengthen the theoretical analysis. Received: 10 March