Title of article :
Predicting the mortality due to Covid-19 by the next month for Italy, Iran and South Korea; a simulation study
Author/Authors :
Shojaee, Sajad Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Ashtari, Sara Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Vahedian-Azimi, Amir Trauma Research Center - Nursing Faculty - Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Asadzadeh- Aghdaei, Hamid Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Zali, Mohammad Reza Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran
Abstract :
To estimate the number of confirmed cases and the rate of death and also to investigate the cause of death in Italy, Iran and
South Korea in the next month.
Background: Growing number of confirmed and deaths cases from the coronavirus worldwide, particularly in Italy, Iran and South
Korea, has resulted concerns about the future of these countries and their deterioration. Also the European region is likely to face
more casualties due to the delay in the virus reaching most of its regions and, of course, as the trend continues.
Methods: We conducted a simulation in both current and ideal situation for the next month to predict the death rate and examine the
reason for the difference in Italy, Iran and South Korea individually. If we assume the cultural and political factors and age pyramids
distribution are similar across regions, the differences are mainly due either to the heavier health-care burden owing to the larger
population or to the medical facilities diversities.
Results: Our results for Italy showed higher death number, but the rate would be more for Iran. South Korea is also expected to have
a smaller increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths compared to Iran and Italy by the next month.
Conclusion: Given the prevailing conditions around the world and the increasing number of casualties, it is essential that all
countries, especially those with fewer days of involvement, shall do their best to avoid major losses and damages.
Keywords :
South Korea , COVID-19 , Coronavirus , Mortality , Iran , Italy
Journal title :
Gastroenterology and Hepatology From Bed to Bench