Optimizing resiliency of train operations in an underground metro: A hybrid discrete-event simulation and response surface methodology

Avoiding the passengers extra waiting time is a vital task for rail planners. The current research focused on minimizing the passenger waiting time on the presence of real frequently random occurred disturbances. Details of the proposed model are on the 1st line of Tehran underground rail rapid transit. All fitness functions are validated using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) by applying the hypothesis testing method. Also, a validated discrete-event computer simulation model is applied to examine the average waiting time per passenger as the key performance measure under different scenarios generated using full factorial design of experiments. The validity of the obtained optimal solution, i.e., train headway times is confirmed at a 95% level of reliability. Also, simulation outcomes indicated that the proposed response surface meta-model could efficiently provide a more reliable train operation plan to ensure a desirable level of system resiliency on the presence of random disturbances. The numerical results indicated that wait time could be reduced by 14.8% for passengers as compared with the baseline train headway plan.