Author/Authors :
Olfatifar, Meysam Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Alali, Walid Q. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - Faculty of Public Health - Kuwait University - Safat, Kuwait , Houri, Hamidreza Foodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Babaee, Ebrahim Department of Community Medicine - Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center - Iran University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Seifollahi, Romian Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Sharifian, Afsaneh Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran , Zali, Mohammad Reza Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences - Tehran, Iran
Abstract :
To estimate the epidemiological parameters related to the Covid-19 outbreak in Iran.
Background: Estimating the epidemiological parameters of new public health threat (COVID-19) is essential to support and inform
public health decision-making in different communities including Iran.
Methods: We established a mathematical model to estimate the epidemiological parameters from 19 Feb to 15 March based on daily
COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. Then, we estimated the effect of early traffic restriction on our estimation.
Results: We estimated the R0 at 2.11 (95% CI, 1.87-2.50) and the infected number at 92,260 (95% CI: 59,263 -152,212) by 15
March. Our estimate for the ascertainment rate was about 1.2% (95% CI: 1.1-1.4). The latent period estimation was 4.24 (95% CI:
2.84-6.65). We observed a decline in our estimate after considering the traffic restriction.
Conclusion: Our results suggest that health authorities in Iran must take impactful strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak to
reach R0<1. Therefore, the establishment of complementary, multilateral, and cost-effective measures for the treatment of
symptomatic and early diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic cases/contacts are strongly recommended because of low
ascertainment rate and large number of infected cases. We additionally recommend that traffic restriction be combined with other
controlling measures.
Keywords :
Epidemiological parameters , Outbreak , COVID-19 , Iran
