COLLECTIVE AND INDIVIDUAL MONTH-WISE DATA MANAGEMENT APPROACH ON THE DATA COLLECTED IN KALAM (SWAT) THROUGH MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

An understanding ofhydrological regimes of mountain rivers is essential f or water resources managementin Pakistan. As there are no proper estimates and relationships ofriver flow and climatic variables and especiallysnow-melt stream flow relationships there is always a chance offloods which causes serious damag es to crops,human beings and other infrastructures . A pr oper study is theref ore required to understand and analyze the runoffregimes and its relation to the climatic variables to f orecast the river flow. In this study different hydrologicalregimes of River Swat Basin at Kalam are investigated by using inter-relationships of runoff with rainfall andtemperature. In regression analysis, two types ofdata management schem es are used in this study, first is IndividualMonthwise Regression in which 30 years monthly valu es of each parameter are regr essed for each monthindividually. The second is Coll ective Monthwise Regr ession in which normal valu e of each month is tabulatedagainst each parameter and then collectively flow values are regressed on pre cipitation, temp erature and relativehumidity. In this colle ctive monthwise technique encouraging results were obtained, which can be used for futureprediction offlow. Thirty years data was used to find out the linkages between river flows and climatic variables(temperature, pr ecipitation and relative humidity) in the study. Linkages in coll ective monthwise approach ofregr ession analysis came out quit e better , espec ially f or fl ow and temperatur e. This is due to the absence ofgaugingstati ons at upper elevations, or it may be due to the reason that the station is not repres entative of the-wholecatchment. In this study it is found that the Collective Month-wis e Technique is a useful technique for Swat RiverBasin at Kalamfor pr edictingflow in River Swat.